Trends in Indo-Pak Relations : | Dipesh Karmarkar - zolyblog.info
Trends of Indo-Pak Relations: to Presentation (PDF Available) · October with Reads. DOI: /RG Relations between India and Pakistan have been complex and largely hostile due to a number Indo-Pakistani Wars · –15 India–Pakistan border skirmishes · India–Pakistan border skirmishes · Insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir. Indian hostile actions on the LoC will only help the Pakistan Army to On Pakistan and India relations Published: January 26,
Though Pak-US governments try to maintain a strategic partnership, there definitely is a trust deficit. The recent spanner in the works in, so to say, in the relations between India and Pakistan was thrown in with the Mumbai attacks on 26 November, It was on this day that a group of militants simultaneously attacked multiple targets in Mumbai, killing around people, including 22 foreign nationals, while some people were injured.
Keeping in mind the coming visit of the Pakistan PM to the US, it would be of great use to go through some of the most prominent incidents between Pakistan and India, Pakistan and US and the US and India, and how these incidents have shaped the relations between these countries over the past few years.
Action on terrorism should not be linked to the Composite Dialogue Process and these should not be bracketed. On 1 DecemberPresident Barak Obama decided to broaden the relationship with Pakistan on foundations of mutual trusts and respect. On 4 FebruaryIndia officially offered to restart foreign secretary-level talks with Pakistan. Delegates went to India, where they were handed over three dossiers. They demanded that thirty-three individuals, including two serving Pakistan army officers as well as Indian fugitives allegedly involved in terror acts, be handed over to India.
Evidently both countries failed to bury the hatch at this meeting. During MarchIndia again requested to conduct a second round of meetings to which Pakistan refused mentioning that it wanted result oriented talks. They held three meetings, including a one-on-one discussion that lasted over an hour.
An agreement was that there was a lack of trust that necessitated dialogue. Terrorism and prosecution of terrorists allegedly involved in the Mumbai attacks were issues highlighted by Manmohan Singh, to which the Pakistani premier reassured that terrorism was a threat that the country was working against. He was freed after US gave blood money to the Families of the dead.
In MaySaleem Shahzad, a Pakistani journalist, was killed.
A chronology of US-Pakistan and India-Pakistan relations since | Pakistan Today
The army, according to analysts, is proclaiming its supremacy over foreign policy and internal security issues and wants Nawaz Sharif to concentrate on the economy and deliver there first. The feeling among top Indian functionaries was that the Pakistan Army was not keen on Nawaz moving forward on relations with India at a quicker pace.
That could partly explain why the new government has cooled off with regard to granting India the Most Favoured Nation MFN status, with the new Finance Minister Muhammad Ishaq Dar stating that they would have to examine it again before taking a decision. India is concerned with the lack of continuity in terms of foreign policy whenever there is a regime change in Pakistan. During Pervez Musharraf's rule, India had invested a lot on back-channel talks between its interlocutor, the sagacious Satinder K.
Lambah and Pakistan's Tariq Aziz. A near agreement was reached on the Kashmir question but on this issue also the new Pakistan government claims it has to update itself on the talks. Indian analysts hope that it means the new government wants to put its own stamp on key issues but would move forward on them.
It is our desire to turn a fresh page in our bilateral relations. Importantly, the army allowed a civilian government to complete its full five-year term and make way for a democratic transition — again a first in the country.
The Pakistan army is no longer seen as a government in waiting and Karamat sees the chance of another coup in future as receding. The army continues to be under pressure though to tackle the tense internal security situation.
Timeline: India-Pakistan relations
Noted journalist Ahmed Rashid concurs with Karamat on the need for a national security strategy. New balance Nawaz Sharif has recently talked of formulating such a strategy and has constituted a Cabinet Committee on National Security which he heads to work out the framework and implement it. The outcome will be watched keenly, as it would indicate the new balance between the civilian government and the army.
Indian experts though remain sceptical about whether the army has truly reformed itself and will be content to play second fiddle to a civilian government in matters of foreign policy and internal security. We all know that the army calls the shots and it has been a stable organisation for decades.
Much like in Pakistan, there is an activist Supreme Court that has constantly put the government on the mat. As has the Comptroller and Auditor General, which has exposed several scams that have left the government reeling. UPA-II has steadily lost its alliance partners and now lives from Parliament session to Parliament session by balancing out the opposing forces among parties that are averse to seeing the BJP come to power.
Economic growth has fallen to 5 per cent levels, inflation is high, the rupee drops to new lows every day and the stock market is showing lack of investor confidence with frequent crashes. Foreign Direct Investment is thinning out and international credit agencies that once looked at India as a bright star have steadily downgraded the ratings. Meanwhile, with the splitting of Andhra Pradesh into two states, the UPA government finds itself in a pickle.
And after a couple of years of peace, there are worrying signs of unrest in Jammu and Kashmir that again point to a Pakistan hand. Unstable coalition in India? For the UPA government, the prognosis is not good, with recent opinion polls showing that they will be voted out of power in the next General Election in Indications are that India may end up with a ragtag coalition that is unlikely to be stable or focused.
Nawaz Sharif may think it not wise to invest too much in the UPA government and may decide to wait till there is political clarity after the General Election. India did the same by hitting the pause button till the results of the May General Election in Pakistan. While Manmohan Singh continues to push for good relations with Pakistan despite the recent LoC incidents, his hands are tied because of the weakness of the UPA coalition and the strident opposition from the BJP and other parties, which makes a political consensus for bettering relations with Pakistan difficult at the moment.
The cost of not engaging with each other is high for both countries as it would send all kinds of wrong signals to the world that would be detrimental to both.
Also at an international forum like the UN it would look odd if India refused to speak to Pakistan, as it would only exacerbate concerns that the two are back on the brink of war, which may dissuade foreign investors from coming in.
Restore tranquillity on the LoC Indian experts who support talks are also conscious of not loading too much till Nawaz Sharif settles down and asserts control over internal forces that have a powerful say in Pakistan, particularly the army. Pakistan must understand how angered and anguished the Indian people feel about the lack of a speedy trial and punishment for the perpetrators of the Mumbai attack.
When I walked across from the Wagah border to the Pakistan immigration complex on Wednesday the imperatives were obvious. I was bathed in sweat in five minutes as there was no power and the few fans that creaked only added to the humidity.
Please push the cause for peace between the two countries. I had driven from Chandigarh to Amritsar, crossing cities that evoke nostalgia among Pakistanis — Ludhiana, Jalandhar, Kapurthala and, of course, Amritsar.
On the way, we stopped for a meal short of the turning to Sargoda and the dhaba too had no power — they had a battery back-up for a music player that belted out deafening Punjabi songs, much like the Indian dhabas.
The menu was similar, though the food was cooked with more oil on this side of the border. The Punjabi spoken here was no different, including the swear words! There were flashy SUVs that people on both sides of the divide like to show off when they commute.
He wanted to know if Indian roads were as good as the motorway we were driving on and said he was very keen to visit India, lamenting that he had no relatives on that side of the border to sponsor a trip for him. He proudly showed me the picture of his four-year-old on his cell phone and said he was looking for a good private school to put him in. And he hoped the new Nawaz Sharif government would deliver on its promises, particularly on improving the dismal power situation and education facilities.
Are these two conversations relevant to the topic on hand? Yes — because both, the young immigration officers and Nadeem, are in many ways representative of the new, young Pakistan that is emerging. Pakistani scholar Mooed Yusuf, who did an analysis of youth surveys infound that they opined that it was inflation and unemployment that topped the list of the single-most important issue facing Pakistan.
Terrorism came in a distant third. Polls in India have come up with similar results, where the young, which constitute a majority of the population, talking of rising prices and job availability as their biggest concerns. It is this sizeable aspiration class in both countries who will increasingly determine the discourse in their respective countries.
Politicians can only ignore their concerns and outlook at their own peril. The young are hard-focused on the economy and development, wanting better schools and colleges, housing and transport, water supply and roads, incomes and consumer goods. All this would require both countries to grow annually at 8 to 10 per cent. For that peace on the streets and with its neighbours is essential. Since neither India nor Pakistan generate enough government revenues to fund the infrastructure growth, both would require substantial doses of private investment, domestic and foreign.
These would not come if there was internal strife, external aggression and a state of uncertainty. Since both countries have sizeable domestic markets and an exploding middle-class, it makes sense for them to ensure that trade among themselves and in the region expands considerably.
Consumers would get cheaper goods and the respective domestic industries would grow, providing more jobs, thereby becoming a win-win for both countries by tackling the two most important issues: Working towards peace Nawaz Sharif himself voiced such an opinion in a recent interview when he said.
It should have gone into education; it should have gone into health care. And I hope that both countries realise the mistakes that we have made. I think the main objective of making peace with each other is to get rid of all that.
A chronology of US-Pakistan and India-Pakistan relations since 2008
Several leading Pakistan businessmen believe trade with India would in fact be highly beneficial. Pakistan, in fact, has stronger institutions, like banking, which is one of the healthiest in the world. We have certain logistical advantages too, like for cement production we have limestone. On the manufacturing side, if we are at a disadvantage, then we can fix it by sitting down with India and telling them that certain tariffs will gradually come down in five years to give our people time.
So the impression is not correct. I feel that we need to compete more in the interest of our consumers, and maybe we can get Indian partners. We could get investment from India too. Mr Modi has done a miracle with an 11 per cent annual growth rate. I would suggest we learn what they have done there.
Some day maybe, if certain concessions need to be given to Pakistan, and Mr Modi is the Prime Minister, chances are he would be in a position to give more concessions because he has always been viewed as a hardliner.
But that perception is incorrect if you see the outcome of relations between India and China. India pushed its border dispute aside with China and the two concentrated on other aspects of the relationship, including trade as advocated by the then Chinese supremo Deng Xiaoping. India and China continue to have skirmishes and tension on the border, but are able to deal with it more maturely.
The other incident that stayed in my mind was when I was asked to talk to students of Aitchison College in Lahore when I visited Pakistan in Instead, most of them wanted to know how India made its economy grow in the s.
I had to tell him that India faced much the same situation as Pakistan faces today. There was sectarian strife, the economy had tanked and there was little expectation from a coalition government. But that gave the impetus for India to boldly go ahead with reforms, and the rest is history.
In the young, Pakistan now has the constituency to launch a major economic reform process and I think there is no one better than Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to do this. There are two other game-changers that have come to the fore in the recent times.
India and Pakistan have vibrant news media that put the government on the mat and are widely watched. Media freedom is evident in Pakistan, where channels are unafraid of criticising the ruling dispensation though they continue to be cautious when it comes to the army. The media has also made the governments in both countries more vigilant and accountable. We saw how social media fuelled the Arab spring and how Wikileaks exposes shook the US and governments across the world.